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Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33733/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: CME with an auriform presentation in both the outline of its bulk and shock, seen to the west in SOHO. Associated with a strong eruption from AR3843 near S10W50 following an M6.7-class flare; an EUV wave is seen in SDO 193 and GOES 284. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
SIDC URSIGRAM 41004
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Oct 2024, 1257UT
...
 Third CME was
observed in C2 images at 20:36 UTC on Oct 03, on the West limb. It was
associted with a M6.7 flare, which peaked at 20:28 UTC on Oct 03, produced
by the SIDC Sunspot Group 272 (NOAA AR 3843, S07 W45). Associated type II
radio emissions were detected at 20:12 UTC, during this flaring activity.
The associated EUV wave was also observed. It has a projected width of
about 106 degree and a projected speed of about 645 km/s (as detected by
CACTUS tool). It may impact the Earth on Oct 06-07. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24
hours.






  
  
    
    
      
        
        
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
            
              
              
              sidctech@oma.be
              
              
              2024-10-05T22:00:13
              
              
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                        2024-10-06T01:00:00
Lead Time: 48.20 hour(s)
Difference: 45.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-10-05T22:00Z
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